Notes from San Jose Solar Power Conference October 16-19, 2006

Don Wichert, director of the Renewable Energy Programs of Focus on Energy, wrote the following report after returning from a major solar conference:

This conference may be remembered as the event signifying the take off of the solar energy industry, or possibly the beginning of the second solar revolution. The difference from the first solar movement of the early 1980’s is the market entrance of deep pocket players, new technology development; using lessons learned from the first solar revolution and the evolution of creative and proactive energy policy based on: rising fuel costs, climate change and resource depletion.

The conference was put on by the two major associations in the US focused on solar: the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA). Over 6,000 people attended the event and there were about 170 exhibitors.

The exhibit hall was the major focus of the event, as the many displays were huge, glitzy and, from the looks of things, many deals were being made. I was amazed at how many new companies were there that I had never heard of before. The new companies were dominated by the Germans and the Chinese, who see the US and California in particular as being very fertile ground for business.

The first day I attended a meeting of the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) of which WECC is a member. A major topic of this session explored the need for PV panel performance standards. However, I was not convinced that these standards are needed because there already is a European standard for panel performance, which is quite rigorous: IEC 61215 and IEC 61215. Referencing that standard for product performance is all that is sufficient for the industry and consumers. UL also has a product safety and performance standard: UL-1703.

There was also a discussion on best practices for net metering, which included the customer keeping RECs, no external switch and aggregating metering (which seems very unlikely). A report will soon be released on this topic by IREC. Other topics considered trends in solar installations across the country and the development of a small wind product testing system. IREC is also sponsoring a National Conference on Workforce Renewable Energy Education on November 8, 9, 10.

The new head of the Solar America Initiative (Tom Kimbis) gave an update of the new program. He was young, but very impressive-smart and reflective. He talked mostly about the RFP’s that are on the street and due December 13, 2006. The solar city RFP seems most appealing for WI. Six to 10 awards for ~$100,000 each will be made plus technical help. The RFP asks proposers to commit to an aggressive and comprehensive solar development approach: assessments, installations, training, K-12, codes and standards, high profile marketing, etc.

The general conference included descriptions of the CA PV program. It is large ($3.4 billion over ten years) and includes declining incentives over ten years with a goal of no incentives in year ten. It also includes performance monitoring for systems over 100 kW and expected performance for less than 100 kW, like WI. The performance incentives (over 100 kW) are paid over five years. All but $3 million is for PV. It’s broken down into existing buildings, low income, new buildings and a little for R&D. To be eligible for an incentive, you need to pass EE standards. The climate goal is Slow, Reduce and Reverse carbon input into the atmosphere.

A session on solar thermal introduced the Fat Spaniel metering system, which includes a meter by Metrina, selling for $545. Sterling Planet said they were buying thermal RECs (Dell Jones).

Investment Opportunities

There has been $300 million put into solar PV this year from VC’s; twice the amount in 2005. Eight VC fund managers were interviewed. They look for large projects, strong management teams, engineering talent, a non-engineering CEO, most (but not all) favor disruptive technologies, strong patent claims, building on past experience (even failures), potential for future low installed cost, having the four P’s: potential, product, predictability and people; and having strong financing knowledge. Recent company picks: Fat Spaniel, XsunX, Ready Solar, Sun Power, Konarka, Mia solai

Manufacturing Silicon
REC Silicon is building a $600 million plant in central Washington that will take three years to build. Many risks: need solid technology, project management know-how, operational know how and capital. The TCS technology accounts for 77% of the total market, which will double by 2010. These plants need to compete with other chemical plant opportunities for resources, including skilled people. Prices of everything used in the plant are going up 6-35% per year. Therefore, a big contingency is needed in the original budget.

The price for silicon is market driven. Now $45 to 70 per ton.
Ways to cut cost for PV:
Go thin
Alternative wafer technologies (ribbon, string)
Alternative to silicon supply (plastic)
Cooperate with manufacturers (vertical chain?)

13 tons of silicon is needed to get four tons of wafers. A 500 MW plant needs 6,000 tons of silicon and will deliver 2,500 tons of wafers. It’s possible to get to 7 tons of silicon per MW.

Trade Show (a few that really caught my eye):
Sun Power (German): Delivers 22% efficiency
Schuco (German): Solar hot water and PV—very slick, thin
Open Energy: PV glass
XSunX: Cell manufacturing: $14 million for technology and a 5 MW plant of wafers
Solar BOS: Balance of Systems
Applied Materials: Silicon producers
Mondial Energy: Third party solar thermal financiers
EnerWorks: Canadian solar system: Installed price: $5,500 for a 64 sq. ft. system and, according to them, the highest SRCC panel rating performance.
SunTrek Solar Pool Heaters: $4.5 a square foot for the product.
Sol Omnilight: PV/lighting packages for off grid applications: bus shelters, lights for signs and parking or path lights.